One pandemic, two Monarchs and three Prime Ministers. It has been all change since the Christmas of 2019 and by no later than the January of 2025, the British people will go to the polls to decide Britain’s direction for the second half of the 2020s. For Labour, the polls have throughout 2023 indicated that their years in the wilderness could soon be over. On the government benches, the Conservatives will be looking for a fifth consecutive win however with many already saying that the writing is on the wall for Rishi Sunak, what can he do to pull an upset?
Economy
The easiest way to win or lose an election is to ask the question; “Are you better off now compared to five years ago”? Whether it is 2010, 1997 or 1992; the economic situation and the economic competence of the government will in nearly all elections be the leader factor in whether a government stays or goes. What can the Tories point out in their record and hold the base which evolved following the 2019 landslide?
Whilst inflation 12 months ago stood at over 10%, over the past 12 months this has fallen to 6.3% according to the Office for National Statistics for August 2023, whilst much of this inflation was due to the war in Ukraine affecting world supplies of oil and natural gas as well as the lingering effects of Covid, this has eaten away at the average purchasing power of consumers. For the former Chancellor now Prime Minister, this has been the leading economic concern and was point one in Rishi’s five point plan launched at the beginning of the year when he promised to reduce inflation by half by the beginning of 2024. Although this promise has not quite been reached, the economy is on course to reach this goal by January. Achieving this promise can be a key selling point for current MP’s and parliamentary candidates to highlight on the campaign trail as normality returning in spite of the on-going war in Ukraine.
With the interest rates rising to counter inflation however, the government cannot risk alienating those who have seen mortgage payments increase lest the Conservatives lose the support of homeowners, a key bloc in the Tory voting base. As such, whilst tackling inflation is the number one priority as this affects all people, once the inflation rate falls, slight reductions to the Bank of England’s interest rate must be considered to relieve pressure on those with mortgages.
The NHS
Generally a weak point and a place of attack for the Labour Party, the NHS is a key avenue for attack by Labour on the Conservatives record in government. This is further compounded by strikes by junior doctors and consultants whose trade unions have rejected government pay offers.
While long term, the NHS needs have a Royal Commission appointed in order to provide recommendations for restructuring the organisation of healthcare in the UK as well as funding in order to not harm the fiscal health of the UK, as parties have across the political spectrum have turned the NHS into a bidding war in terms of how much investment the service would be given over the lifetime of the next parliament. For now and leading into the next election, the Tories are limited in what measures can be undertaken to limit the damage that strikes are causing on the service.
One measure open to the government is to re-enter negotiations with the British Medical Association (BMA) who represent doctors and make a improved yet still economically viable increase on the previous offer set out by the government. As with all disputes between employers and trade unions, winning public opinion is critical to ensure the most favourable outcome for your side. Putting forward an improved offer has two clear purposes. Firstly, this outlines an intention to resolve the current dispute and acknowledging the need to augment the pay offer to junior doctors which will shift public opinion. Secondly, the dispute will be resolved should the BMA accept the deal whilst public opinion regarding the dispute will move against the BMA should the offer be rejected.
Waiting lists are the other main area where the Prime Minister had outlined in his January promises and is likely an area which the government will not be able to meet the promises as the January 2023 waiting list for hospital treatment reached 7.2 million. Over the course of 2023, the number had increased to 7.6 million and is not likely to fall before the end of the year. In regards to the campaign trail, the government needs to run a balancing act between mentioning the NHS enough to indicate that there is a plan whilst also not having healthcare become a leading talking point on the campaign trail as this will allow Labour to score easy attacks without necessarily providing a comprehensive alternative.
Policing and National Security
National security is one area of policy where the Conservatives can outline a more popular platform then both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. On this platform, the Conservatives need to outline support for the Police against some of the attacks that have been levelled against the institution such as Sadiq Khan’s claims that the Metropolitan Police is institutionally racist and sexist. Whilst an attack against Labour will help motivate the base, achievable promises must be laid out. One avenue to address some of the criticism put forward in recent years is to amend recruiting procedures as well as the processes concerning officers under investigation. By presenting a moderate platform, a Conservative platform on policing can address practical concerns raised without coming across to the independent voter as self-defeating or a denouncement of the police.
In regards to the armed forces, the retirement of Ben Wallace from the cabinet and his decision to step down as MP will have hurt the government benches however provided that the UK maintains its support for Ukraine, allying to contain the geopolitical challenges posed by China and investing to ensure that military doctrines are kept up to date. The Conservatives will be able to present themselves as the best option for the internal and external defence of the United Kingdom.
Conclusion
Whilst a date for the next election has not yet been confirmed and although the Tories have been lagging substantially in the polls with the changes in leadership, the party can with the right policies and with some good fortune close the gap and perhaps pull one of the great upsets of modern politics and give Rishi Sunak a undeniable mandate to remain at Number 10.
